Potential vaccine varieties are successively listed, and the industry opens up room for development

The domestic vaccine sector was not valued by the market before, because most of the varieties were low-priced first-class vaccines and severely homogenized second-class vaccines, with fierce competition and limited corporate profits. At present, the vaccine industry is in the stage of launching potential varieties and increasing the volume. The AC-Hib triple vaccine and EV71 hand-foot-mouth disease vaccine are in a period of rapid growth after the market. Imported 2-valent and 4-valent HPV vaccines have been approved after 10 years of waiting. , The domestic 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine and HPV vaccine are on the eve of the market, and the industry is at an upward turning point.

The vaccine industry is highly concentrated, which is a subdivision of the blue ocean in the pharmaceutical sector

According to data from the China National Inspection and Quarantine Institute, there are currently about 35 companies that have issued vaccine batches in China, and there are even fewer companies that have major product research and development, and the market is very concentrated. On the other hand, vaccines are used in the country's large healthy population, especially It is young children, so the vaccine industry is more sensitive, and imported products will be subject to certain restrictions. At present, only domestic products are purchased for national first-class vaccines. In 2016, imported vaccine batches accounted for only 2.3% of the total. The competition pattern of domestic enterprises is good. Moreover, from the perspective of product registration, vaccine oligopoly competition, facing a large domestic healthy population, is the real blue ocean in the field of medicine.

The vaccine industry is preferentially treated by policies, and less restricted by bidding and medical insurance

The bidding system of the vaccine industry is different from that of medicines. Because of its limited variety, new products can be dynamically added after they are launched, and they are not limited by the bidding schedule, and the volume is fast. Moreover, the second-class vaccine does not occupy medical insurance funds, and the people choose to vaccinate independently. Therefore, the vaccine has always been of high quality and good price, and will not be restricted by medical insurance control fees. In addition, prevention is more economical than treatment. The CDC report in the United States points out that 1 US dollar of vaccine expenditure saves about 5-27 US dollars in treatment costs. Therefore, vaccines are strongly supported by the state and preferential policies.

Class II vaccines have consumer product attributes and also benefit from consumption upgrades

The second-class vaccine people choose to vaccinate independently, which is a medical product with consumer attributes. China is at the most significant stage of consumption upgrading. Vaccines, as the most effective means to prevent diseases, will have a high degree of acceptance. At present, in China's large consumer goods industry, "upgrade" is a very important investment idea in the market. In the field of medical consumption, it is mainly reflected in the upgrade of rigid medication and the rise of non-rigid high-end medical demand. Vaccines fall into this category. With the popularization of emerging media, people’s perceptions will change more rapidly. In addition, with the increase in payment levels, the vaccination rate is expected to increase.

  Investment Advice

Vaccines depend on new varieties. The growth of old products is limited. Only when new products are launched will the company's performance increase. Therefore, we focus on vaccine companies with potential varieties: Watson Bio (13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine and 2-valent HPV vaccine) To be launched), Kangtai Biology (MRC-5 rabies vaccine is to be launched, and there are many potential varieties under development), Zhifei Biology (AC-Hib vaccine is heavy, and Merck’s 4-valent HPV will be launched soon).

  risk warning

The risk of product development failure; product promotion not up to expectations; the impact of vaccine industry events.